ECI to Announce Dates for 5 State Assembly Elections
The anticipation for the upcoming 5 State Assembly Elections in significant states—Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Telangana, Chhattisgarh, and Mizoram—reached a crescendo today as the Election Commission of India (ECI) unveiled the much-awaited poll schedule. This announcement marks the initiation of the final major electoral exercise before the highly anticipated 2024 national elections.
The Election Commission’s declaration of the election schedule also activates the model code of conduct, a set of rules governing the behavior of political parties and candidates in the lead-up to the elections. Notably, it prohibits government functionaries from making any announcements that could potentially influence voters, ensuring a level playing field for all.
In 2018, these five states, collectively accounting for approximately 15% of India’s population and boasting around 200 million voters, went to the polls in four phases between November 12 and December 7. The polls were particularly noteworthy due to their occurrence in Left-wing insurgency-hit southern Chhattisgarh.
Madhya Pradesh’s 230-member assembly, along with Mizoram’s 40 assembly seats, witnessed elections on November 28, 2018. Rajasthan and Telangana, with 200 and 119-member assemblies respectively, exercised their democratic rights on December 7, marking a significant moment in their political histories.
However, 2018’s poll schedule announcement was not without controversy. The ECI’s delay of over two hours in announcing the schedule raised suspicions and triggered criticism, with allegations that it was orchestrated to provide Prime Minister Narendra Modi an advantage at an election rally in Rajasthan’s Ajmer. At the rally, Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje announced a waiver on electricity bills for farmers, just before the imposition of the model code.
The political landscape has shifted significantly since 2018. The Congress managed to wrest power from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the Hindi-speaking heartland states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh, but the 2019 general elections saw the BJP regain dominance. Meanwhile, the TRS, now renamed Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS), retained power in Telangana, and the Mizo National Front took charge in Mizoram.
The term of the Mizoram assembly is set to conclude on December 17, with the other four states having different end dates in January.
Madhya Pradesh, one of the largest states in India, sending 29 members to the Lok Sabha, saw a change in power dynamics when the Congress lost to the BJP in March 2020. Since 2003, the BJP has been the dominant force in the state, except for an 18-month hiatus between 2018 and 2020. However, it now faces anti-incumbency sentiments and internal strife.
Earlier this year, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi expressed confidence that the Congress would form the next government in Madhya Pradesh and secure 150 of the 230 seats. Notably, the BJP also faced defeats in Himachal Pradesh in 2022 and Karnataka in May.
The Congress’s 2018 victories in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan were not mirrored in the subsequent Lok Sabha elections when it secured only three out of the 65 seats in these states. However, the party draws inspiration from its recent success in Karnataka, where it returned to power through an ideological campaign focused on welfare, social justice, and anti-corruption.
As the election schedule unfolds, Telangana is expected to witness a three-cornered contest between the BRS, the BJP, and the Congress. Rajasthan, where the incumbent party has not returned to power since 1985, presents leadership challenges for both Congress and BJP. Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot and his former deputy Sachin Pilot have been embroiled in public disputes, while BJP’s Vasundhara Raje has had her share of differences with the party’s leadership.
The Congress, banking on its welfare-centric policies and Chief Minister Gehlot’s track record of delivery, is optimistic about retaining power in the state. The announcement of the poll schedule heralds the beginning of a fiercely contested electoral battle in these key states, setting the stage for India’s political future.